A NOTE:

Posted at 10:46 p.m. ET

Just an informal late note about today's major Obama flap.  The pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen, appearing on Fox, made two significant points about this building story.  First, he said that Obama's startling comments will play a larger role in the general election, when he must appeal to independents, than in the Democratic primaries.  Second, he noted that this is the first flap in his campaign involving Obama himself.   Previously, it's been his advisers, like Samantha Power or Merrill McPeak, his pastor, or his wife who've made outrageous statements.  This time, Obama must take the heat alone. 

So far, the Obama campaign is standing by the senator's statements.  Maybe they think the San Francisco crowd can swing the election.

The key moment in this story will be Monday morning.  If Hillary's people have any competence, they'll restart the controversy then, in time for the last full week of campaigning for the Pennsylvania primary.  They need TV ads playing Obama's words.  They need radio.  This will be a test of whether they're in the World Series, or just playing sandlot ball.

LATER EVENING UPDATE - OBAMA - APRIL 11, 2008

Posted at 9:02 p.m. ET

THE OBAMA FLAP

Scott Johnson and John Hinderaker at Power Line have some great takes on the Obama flap.  For those of you just joining us, read the stories below for details.  Seems Mr. Obama expressed his considered opinion of certain residents of Pennsylvania at a meeting before the San Francisco elite, and has set off a large brushfire. Combined with the profound opinions of his wife, and those of the Rev. Wright, Mr. Obama is developing an image problem.  No wonder he doesn't wear his American flag pin.

As John Hinderaker puts it, "I don't see how anyone known to have uttered these words can be elected president."

The story has not yet made it to the main online page of The New York Times, but now is up at The Washington Post, which seems more worried about Obama and how he'll handle the crisis than with the meaning of his remarks.  I mean, those flyover people out there.  Do they count?

"Hannity & Colmes" just went on.  It's the lead story.  But again, as I wrote earlier, where this goes will depend on the skill of Obama's opponents.  The press will do everything to protect him.  After all, these comments about Pennsylvania were made six days ago, and just came out today.  Where were "the people's eyes and ears"? 

April 11, 2008.      Permalink           

EVENING UPDATE,  APRIL 11,  2008

Posted at 7:14 p.m. ET

OBAMA STORY SPREADS

The new Obama story (see piece right below this, in "Another Afternoon Posting") is spreading rapidly around the web.  The key question is whether there's a tape to fully confirm news reports that he made disparaging remarks about Pennsylvanians in a San Francisco speech Saturday.  Strangely, the story has been taken down from Drudge.  But both the Clinton and McCain camps are responding.  Clinton:

Hillary Clinton, jumping on Obama's San Francisco comments on the bitterness in small-town Pennsylvania during a speech in Philadelphia just now, hit Obama hard:

Clinton said she'd seen in the media that "my opponent said that the people of Pennsylvania who faced hard times are bitter."

"Well, that’s not my experience," she continued. "As I travel around Pennsylvania, I meet people who are resilient, who are optimistic, who are positive, who are rolling up their sleeves. They’re working hard every day for a better future for themselves and their children."

"Pennsylvanians don’t need a president who looks down on them. They need a president who stands up for them, who fights for them, who works hard for your futures, your jobs, and your families," she said, implicitly casting Obama as an elitist.

I'll give that a B minus.  The McCain camp was sharper, and deadlier:

The McCain campaign, finding a gift in its lap, tees off on the eye-opening comments by Barack Obama from a fundraiser last week in San Francisco (of all places).

Asked to respond, McCain adviser Steve Schmidt called it a "remarkable statement and extremely revealing."

"It shows an elitism and condescension towards hardworking Americans that is nothing short of breathtaking," Schmidt said. "It is hard to imagine someone running for president who is more out of touch with average Americans."

Give that one an A.  It hits it right on the head. 

As I said earlier, it's too bad it's Friday.  The fawning Obama press can bury the story.  It will take Clinton and McCain to keep it alive.

Obama's comments, aimed directly at Pennsylvanians, can impact the Pennsylvania primary, a week from Tuesday.  If Clinton can win with a solid number there, it will give her a big boost to continue.  She's gotten a gift.  Now she's got to open it.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink          

OBAMA DOESN'T NEED THIS

The Obama/Pennsylvania comments, if used skillfully by Clinton and McCain, will be seen as a portrait of Obama's real view of America. Opponents will remind voters that this is a view that fits in very nicely, thank you, with those of Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.  Wright has been out of the news, but now he's back in, thanks to a local chapter of the NAACP:

(DETROIT) - The embattled former minister of Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has been selected as the keynote speaker for the Detroit branch of the NAACP's 53rd Annual Fight for Freedom Fund dinner. The civil rights organization says Thursday the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will speak April 27 at the event, whose past speakers have included Obama, Sen. Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton.

Wright has been criticized for inflammatory remarks about everything from race relations to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. He recently retired from Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ. Obama has denounced the most inflammatory of Wright's comments, but says he shouldn't be judged solely on a handful of remarks. The Freedom Fund dinner draws about 10,000 people.

Obama can't be happy about this.  There'll be major press.  The event is a bit more than a week before the Indiana primary, right next door.  Talk radio is ready to pounce.

Whose side is the NAACP on, anyway?

I suspect Senator Obama will be giving his old pastor a gentle call...before the reverend writes his speech.

How quickly things can change in politics.

I want to post this now, but I'll probably have more later tonight, especially if the Obama story ignites.

April 11, 2008.       Permalink          

ANOTHER AFTERNOON POSTING,  APRIL 11,  2008

Posted at 4:46 p.m. ET

BULLETIN:  BIG OBAMA BLUNDER?

Hillary Clinton has been looking for Obama to trip. McCain wants to define Obama as not ready to be president and out of the mainstream.

Has Obama now stumbled, and given both the ammunition they need?

Ben Smith of The Politico has the latest:

Obama on small-town PA: Clinging religion, guns, xenophobia

Mayhill Fowler has more from Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser Sunday, and they include an attempt to explain the resentment in small-town Pennsylvania that won't be appreciated by some of the people whose votes Obama's seeking.

You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them...And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.

And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

That's a pretty broad list of things to explain with job loss.

I hope there's a tape.  This could be very bad for Obama.  I can just imagine the Clinton radio ads in the next few days:  "Here is Senator Obama.  This is what he thinks of you."

Let's see how good the Clinton team is.

For his part, John McCain should step up to a group of microphones and demand that Obama apologize to all the American people, not just the people of Pennsylvania.  The things Obama described will strike a chord all over the country, especially in small towns.

Too bad it's Friday.  People are concentrating on their weekend.  But, if handled correctly, and reminding voters of Rev. Wright's view of America , this could be a significant campaign moment.  Clearly an Obama blunder.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON POSTINGS,  APRIL 11,  2008

Posted at 4:21 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Latest tracking polls show a weird split, which is why we should approach these polls carefully.  Rasmussen has McCain taking the lead again, and up three over Obama.  But Gallup has Obama up three over McCain.

Ras has McCain up six against Clinton, but Gallup has Clinton leading by one. 

So Ras calls McCain the leader, and Gallup has it the other way.  This is a close contest, much closer than the Democrats had predicted. 

Latest poll in Pennsylvania (Zogby) shows Clinton up by only four.  But an Insider Advantage poll released yesterday had her up ten.  This state, voting on the 22nd, is where the action is right now.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink          

FRIDAY,  APRIL 11,  2008

Posted at 6:52 a.m. ET

THE NEW POLITICS - YEAH, RIGHT

David Brock, who slid from right-wing hit man to left-wing hit man, a feat of dexterity that should land him in some hall of defame, now will head a major effort to destroy the reputation of John McCain.  The group has the usual leftist pedigree, and aims to be better-funded than similar attempts, like Fund for America:

But after a dinner Tuesday night at the Manhattan apartment of liberal megadonor George Soros, at which Brock and consultant Paul Begala laid out the group's plans, Brock said his group now has commitments worth $7.5 million — almost twice what the Fund for America is expected to report raising in the first quarter of this year. He said the group would begin running ads before it meets its $40 million goal.

Brock suggested that the group could do the work of a press corps that, he says, has "fallen down on the job" when it comes to McCain.

Yes, as we all know, the press is in the tank for the GOP. 

Brock, of course, not to be outdone in the self-promotion department, has a new book out called, naturally, "Free Ride:  John McCain and the Media."  Apparently, it was written before The New York Times tried to link McCain with a woman, not his wife, in a hit piece a few months back.

And look at that venue - the apartment of George Soros, the America-despising hard leftist financier, so respected in so many circles.  Soros is the subject of a glowing New York Times piece today that happens to include the following:

Many of the people Mr. Soros wants to influence may view him with skepticism, in part because of how he made his fortune. In 1992, his fund famously bet against the British pound and helped force the British government to devalue the currency. Five years later, he bet — correctly — that Thailand would be forced to devalue its currency, the baht. The resulting bitterness toward him among Thais was such that Mr. Soros canceled a trip to the country in 2001, fearing for his safety.

Asked if it bothers him that people accuse him of causing economic pain, his blue eyes dart around the room. “Yes, it does, actually yes,” he said.

My heart breaks.  Soros is typical of a kind of liberal zillionaire who's left human wreckage all over the globe, then becomes a great humanitarian to salvage his soul and restore about ten percent of what he's destroyed.  This type is often found in Hollywood and Manhattan.  They give good parties.

Yuch.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink          

McCAIN DREAMIN'

But as McCain pulls even with Obama in a late national poll, despite Mr. Soros's magic wand, and as another poll shows him slightly ahead of Obama in New York, there's now some California dreamin' going on.  No, McCain is still behind in California, but, hey, with a little imagination...

After counting the things McCain has against him in the state, Roger Simon, in The Politico, finds an opening:

Obama favors giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. McCain opposes it, and this could give McCain the state.

Giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants is unpopular in California. Schwarzenegger successfully exploited opposition to such driver’s licenses in both of his elections, and McCain would have a shot at winning California by exploiting it also.

Yes, it would be ironic for McCain, a moderate on immigration, to take a hard line on this issue, but politics often make people do ironic things.

Dan Schnur, who was McCain’s communications director in 2000 and is now a political strategist based in California, says the driver’s license issue could trump the abortion issue when it comes to McCain.

“Even some Democrats who are pro-choice would turn to McCain over the issue of driver’s licenses,” Schnur said. “There is a pretty straightforward template for winning California: You do what Schwarzenegger did two years ago, which is run to the middle on the environment and most social issues, draw a stark line on taxes and an even starker line on illegal immigration and driver’s licenses.”

At some point the McCain campaign must make clear that it will fight for California.  This will force the Democrats to put resources into a state they think is theirs by Divine right.

Great battle coming up.

April 11, 2008.       Permalink          

AS WE SLEEP

The Times of London reveals satellite imagery that shows a test site for long-range Iranian missiles:

The secret site where Iran is suspected of developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets in Europe has been uncovered by new satellite photographs.

The imagery has pinpointed the facility from where the Iranians launched their Kavoshgar 1 “research rocket” on February 4, claiming that it was in connection with their space programme.

The significance:

Avital Johanan, the editor of Jane's Proliferation, said that the analysis of the Iranian site indicated that Tehran may be about five years away from developing a 6,000km ballistic missile. This would tie in with American intelligence estimates and underlines why President Bush wants the Polish and Czech components of the US missile defence system to be up and running by 2013.

It would be remarkable if one of President Bush's most lasting accomplishments is a missile shield over Europe.  Especially if it saves Europe.

Then watch his approval ratings soar, years after he's left office.   Trumanesque, as they say.

April 11, 2008.       Permalink          

YOU KNOW, HE DOESN'T LOOK...OH WELL

It's entirely understandable that the most left-wing member of the U.S. Senate would be popular in Europe, where the cuckoo left is mainstream.  But an Italian politician is carrying it one step too far:

Walter Veltroni, the centre-left contender, yesterday began his attempt to overtake Silvio Berlusconi in the final days of campaigning before the Italian general election on Sunday.

Mr Veltroni's last-minute sprint took him to Milan, Mr Berlusconi's home town and the heartland of centre-right voters, and to Bologna, the home town of Romano Prodi, his predecessor as leader of the Centre Left and twice Prime Minister of Italy.

And...

Mr Veltroni, a far more effective speaker than Mr Prodi, casts himself as Italy's Barack Obama, adopting as his slogan “Si puo fare," the equivalent of Mr Obama's “Yes, we can."

Oh please.  Will someone inform our Italian friend that Mr. Obama hasn't even got his party's nomination yet.  And, considering the record of Italy's post-war governments, any local politician who says "Yes we can" defies gravity.

Besides, he doesn't look like...  Oh, let's not go there.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink           

YOU'LL LOVE THIS

My Iranian dissident friend, Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, alerts me to this last bit of weirdness.  It seems a Muslim group at the State University of New York at Stony Brook ran a campaign labeled "Scarves for Solidarity."  Its partner was something called the "women's gender resources center."  Get this mission statement:

The purpose of Scarves for Solidarity is to help save battered women while spreading awareness about Islam. The Muslim Student Association is working with sponsors who plan to donate $5 to Battered Women’s Shelter for every female who volunteers to wear a head-scarf/hijab on Monday, April 7th 2007.

Look, I would never disparage anyone's religion, and I don't know how the thing turned out.  But would someone explain to this crowd that saving battered women is a cause in itself, and doesn't have to be linked with "spreading awareness about Islam."  I don't expect to go into a church and see a sign saying, "Hey, save a woman who might die, and learn about Lent at the same time!"

Why do I think there's an ulterior motive here?  Link to the site and decide for yourself.

Be back later.  No scarf.

April 11, 2008.      Permalink